NEW YORK (AP)- Iran retaliated with missiles as the United States began its assassination attempt on January 10. The last seven days have been one of the most volatile and fraught in the Middle East; the past 24 hours have been perhaps the most tense in 40 years.
Just as the U.S.-Iranian war was on the brink, Trump's carefully worded statement gave the world a sigh of relief. The United States and Iran each took a step back from the brink of war. Now that the crisis in the Middle East has stalled, how will the future US-Iranian confrontation develop? What are the risks of a short - term war?
In the first week of 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ordered the killing of Iran's No.3, Suleimani, and U.S.-Iranian relations turned sharply, and World War III was sent on a hot search.
The rivalry and game between the two countries has never been interrupted since the US and Iran broke up in 1980. Americans fret about the 1979 occupation of the embassy in Iran, which has suffered decades of U.S. economic sanctions. The contradictions between the two sides accumulate day by day.
In 2015, Iran signed an Iran nuclear deal with six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue, giving Iran a reprieve from economic sanctions, but U.S.-Iranian relations were again tense after Trump took office, tearing up the deal and restoring sanctions on Iran.
2019 is the year of full-scale confrontation between the us and iraq in the middle east. The United States exerts extreme pressure on Iran, which has gradually suspended its implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement. During the last four months of the year, the two sides have seen a darker contest in Iraq.
On the last day of 2019, the U.S. embassy in Iraq was hit by demonstrators, and Trump believes Iran is behind it. The scene also reminds Americans of the fact that the embassy in Iran was occupied by Iranian students 40 years ago and 52 American personnel were taken hostage.
Suleimani is the representative of Iran in the Middle East. Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, believed that Trump's order to kill him was to get rid of his confidants, but didn't expect to poke a hornet's nest.
The iranian nation is outraged, and supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei has vowed tough revenge. Iran announced the suspension of the final phase of its nuclear agreement and moved to list the U.S. military as a terrorist group. The toughest retaliation came in the early hours of January 8, when Iran fired missiles from home and attacked two U.S. bases in Iraq.
Trump spoke at the White House on the morning of January 8, local time, about the Iranian attack, in what could be the most-watched speech since he took office. Because the world is waiting for his statement: call back? Or endure it?
Trump chose the latter. All the good tweets he's tweeted before may have hinted at his attitude in advance. Trump stressed that the Iranian attack did not cause US casualties and that he would not respond with military action but would impose sanctions on Iran.
Mr. Trump's remarks are in stark contrast to his recent harsh rhetoric, according to the analysis. He has vowed that if Iran retaliates forcefully, the U. S. could respond in an unequal way. In terms of America's military might, such a counter-attack could be fatal to Iran. But Trump's eight-day reply seemed to be carefully worded, pointing to the end.
Iran's attacks are equally measured. The target is to avoid hitting U.S. forces in order to avoid causing the situation to get out of control, Reuters said, citing sources familiar with intelligence assessments.
Mr. Hua said it was a tacit agreement between the United States and Iraq and that no one wanted to continue the work. We hope that both sides will not extend this matter, for the military conflict, when extended, may be beyond the will of the human being, and there is a danger of becoming a regional war.
Khamenei said the Iranian attack was a slap in the face to the United States, and Trump felt that everything was fine after the attack and did not plan a military counter-attack. U.S.-Iranian tensions have subsided for a while. What next?
Mr hua argues that iran's continued retaliation is positive, but it is a serious consideration for iran's leaders when, how much, and how much, it is best for iran.
The drones and missiles may now have been withdrawn, according to CNN, but it would be naive to think that this phase is over. Trump's pronouncements do nothing to defuse a confrontation that will almost certainly intensify again soon.
While there is hope that a step back from the cliff edge will inspire both sides to start a new diplomatic process, they are more likely to return to the state of mutual hatred that has prevailed for 40 years, according to the site's analysis. Moreover, this dangerous stalemate may have turned the confrontation into a new and more dangerous phase.
The 《 Financial Times further noted that the situation in the United States and Iraq remained dangerous, as the trigger for violence between the two sides remained. That is, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and put pressure on Iran to its limits, including economic sanctions.
If the u.s. does tighten further, tehran could use regional proxy forces to intensify asymmetric warfare against the u.s. and its allies to drive u.s. forces out of the middle east, the paper said.
The United States ranks first in the world in military power, and Iran is one of the most powerful in the Middle East. The escalation of the US-Iranian confrontation, whether directly or through regional agents, will affect the pattern of the Middle East.
The conflict between the United States and Iran is now the biggest in the Middle East, the biggest change in the region in decades. And I can foresee that in the next few decades, the Iranian issue will be the major problem facing the US in the region. 'he said.
But Trump's strategy in the Middle East, especially against Iran, is in question. Mr. Marcos Fisch, a New York Times commentator, said he agreed with a number of experts in Europe, the United States and the Middle East that few knew about Mr. Trump's Iranian strategy.
The article argues that almost overnight after the assassination of suleimani, all u.s. targets in the middle east were badly damaged: the u.s. wants iran to go nuclear, and iran is now suspending its nuclear deal; and the u.s. wants to control iran's influence, now its allies are calling for u.s. troops to withdraw. (end)